SPDN: An Inexpensive Way To Profit When The S&P 500 Falls

Summary
SPDN is not the largest or oldest way to short the S&P 500, but it’s a solid choice.
This ETF uses a variety of financial instruments to target a return opposite that of the S&P 500 Index.
SPDN’s 0.49% Expense Ratio is nearly half that of the larger, longer-tenured -1x Inverse S&P 500 ETF.
Details aside, the potential continuation of the equity bear market makes single-inverse ETFs an investment segment investor should be familiar with.
We rate SPDN a Strong Buy because we believe the risks of a continued bear market greatly outweigh the possibility of a quick return to a bull market.
Put a gear stick into R position, (Reverse).
Birdlkportfolio

By Rob Isbitts

Summary
The S&P 500 is in a bear market, and we don’t see a quick-fix. Many investors assume the only way to navigate a potentially long-term bear market is to hide in cash, day-trade or “just hang in there” while the bear takes their retirement nest egg.

The Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X ETF (NYSEARCA:SPDN) is one of a class of single-inverse ETFs that allow investors to profit from down moves in the stock market.

SPDN is an unleveraged, liquid, low-cost way to either try to hedge an equity portfolio, profit from a decline in the S&P 500, or both. We rate it a Strong Buy, given our concern about the intermediate-term outlook for the global equity market.

Strategy
SPDN keeps it simple. If the S&P 500 goes up by X%, it should go down by X%. The opposite is also expected.

Proprietary ETF Grades
Offense/Defense: Defense

Segment: Inverse Equity

Sub-Segment: Inverse S&P 500

Correlation (vs. S&P 500): Very High (inverse)

Expected Volatility (vs. S&P 500): Similar (but opposite)

Holding Analysis
SPDN does not rely on shorting individual stocks in the S&P 500. Instead, the managers typically use a combination of futures, swaps and other derivative instruments to create a portfolio that consistently aims to deliver the opposite of what the S&P 500 does.

Strengths
SPDN is a fairly “no-frills” way to do what many investors probably wished they could do during the first 9 months of 2022 and in past bear markets: find something that goes up when the “market” goes down. After all, bonds are not the answer they used to be, commodities like gold have, shall we say, lost their luster. And moving to cash creates the issue of making two correct timing decisions, when to get in and when to get out. SPDN and its single-inverse ETF brethren offer a liquid tool to use in a variety of ways, depending on what a particular investor wants to achieve.

Weaknesses
The weakness of any inverse ETF is that it does the opposite of what the market does, when the market goes up. So, even in bear markets when the broader market trend is down, sharp bear market rallies (or any rallies for that matter) in the S&P 500 will cause SPDN to drop as much as the market goes up.

Opportunities
While inverse ETFs have a reputation in some circles as nothing more than day-trading vehicles, our own experience with them is, pardon the pun, exactly the opposite! We encourage investors to try to better-understand single inverse ETFs like SPDN. While traders tend to gravitate to leveraged inverse ETFs (which actually are day-trading tools), we believe that in an extended bear market, SPDN and its ilk could be a game-saver for many portfolios.

Threats
SPDN and most other single inverse ETFs are vulnerable to a sustained rise in the price of the index it aims to deliver the inverse of. But that threat of loss in a rising market means that when an investor considers SPDN, they should also have a game plan for how and when they will deploy this unique portfolio weapon.

Proprietary Technical Ratings
Short-Term Rating (next 3 months): Strong Buy

Long-Term Rating (next 12 months): Buy

Conclusions
ETF Quality Opinion
SPDN does what it aims to do, and has done so for over 6 years now. For a while, it was largely-ignored, given the existence of a similar ETF that has been around much longer. But the more tenured SPDN has become, the more attractive it looks as an alternative.

ETF Investment Opinion

SPDN is rated Strong Buy because the S&P 500 continues to look as vulnerable to further decline. And, while the market bottomed in mid-June, rallied, then waffled since that time, our proprietary macro market indicators all point to much greater risk of a major decline from this level than a fast return to bull market glory. Thus, SPDN is at best a way to exploit and attack the bear, and at worst a hedge on an otherwise equity-laden portfolio.

Skin Care Tip: Why It’s A Good Thing For A Woman To Have Tough Skin

When I tell women that tough skin is a good thing, they tend to shy away from this skin care tip.They shun the idea of tough skin because of two misconceptions based on the way we use language.The first misconception is that they assume tough skin is the same as rugged skin. They equate tough skin with rough, leathery, unattractive skin. This, however, is not at all what I am talking about. But I do understand where they get this impression.They get this mistaken impression because they are used to the carefully-spun language used by advertisers to seduce readers and viewers into buying products. When describing facial skin, glossy women’s magazine advertisements or television commercials use words like “soft,” “smooth,” “silky,” “creamy,” and so on. This unconsciously implies that skin must be delicate to be beautiful.The second misconception is people often they think of the metaphor of thick skin, meaning a pachyderm like indifference to unpleasant facts, words, or experiences. Again, the impression is that a thick skin is something that relates to insensitive, cold, hard, and calloused people. Although this is a connotation, an associated or secondary meaning, it is still enough to cloud judgment.The Real Truth about Tough SkinThe truth of the issue of tough skin is that beautiful, healthy, and smooth skin looks that way because it is tough and thick. In fact, it is 7 layers strong because skin was designed to protect the body, rather than serve as an ornament draped over flesh and bone to increase sexual appeal.Young people, for instance, have beautiful skin because they have tough skin. Yes, their skin is thick and tough! This does not mean that it is unhealthy or unattractive as a result of too much swimming, sunbathing, or beauty care neglect. Instead, thick and tough skin means that it is well-structured, strong, and works as an effective barrier against bacteria invading the body from a topical source. Let me repeat: tough skin is also beautiful, healthy, and smooth skin. It is skin that is attractive. While it may be smooth to the touch, it is not delicate skin.How Skin Gets ToughSo now that we have established that tough skin is a good thing, something that you should want to have, the next thing you may be wondering is how skin gets thick and tough. Why did our skin look beautiful when we were younger? It is because as we aged, our skin began to create less collagen and elastin to toughen up.In fact, contrary to popular opinion, delicate skin is not a good thing. As our skin became more delicate, it actually began to crease, line, and wrinkle. It lost its tough, elastic, durable texture. Delicate skin is a nice way to say thin, oversensitive skin. When skin gets thin, it begins to sag. Bags under the eyes, for example, are a result of thin, delicate skin.So when I offer a skin care tip about tougher skin, I am actually pointing people in the right direction.How, then, does one get tough, thick skin?Tough skin is skin rich in collagen and elastin. It is healthy, resilient, well-structured skin.The way to get tough skin is to get more collagen and elastin in the tissue of your skin.The Great DeceptionRealizing that consumers are becoming much more sophisticated when it comes to skin care, cosmetic companies are pretending to offer it to them in skin care creams. In fact, they boldly proclaim that their product has collagen and elastin. Consequently, their sales do really well.Now, this is not a lie. But it is a deception. Let me explain.When assayed by independent laboratories, the beauty product will indeed have collagen and elastin.What the manufacturers are not telling you is that a skin care product with these ingredients is absolutely useless. The proteins have molecules that are too large to be absorbed by your skin. So when you rub the lotion or cream on your face, you only enjoy a temporary benefit. Your skin will look younger and smoother-until you wash off the cream. Then it will go back to its original weak structure and your wrinkles will reappear.A Better SolutionIn your quest for tougher, thicker skin, you should not look for products that have collagen and elastin. Instead, you should look for products that have ingredients that stimulate your body’s ability to produce its own collagen and elastin.Only the highest quality skin care products give you the right ingredients for beautiful skin. These products don’t have additives, preservatives, or filler substance, but are completely natural. Use of these products over time, assuming you use them daily, will recreate the two vital proteins. When they are back in the layers of your skin, you will indeed look years younger. People will marvel at the change.Not Made In North America or EuropeIf you live in North America or Europe, you will not likely have heard of skin care products that are rich in antioxidants, emollients, and, yes, collagen and elastin boosting ingredients. This is because the best beauty products have extracts that come from New Zealand and the Amazon forests in Brazil.As someone living in the United States, I myself had not heard about these products until I became a passionate Internet researcher. I can assure you that I never heard of them when I was in a prestigious beauty school, purportedly learning all about skin care.Fortunately, due to the reach of the Internet, you don’t have to rely on brick-and-mortar stores to get high quality and reasonably priced skin care products that really work. Today, you can get them wherever you live.Here is what I use and recommend:Maracuja from the Amazon forests of Brazil.
Babassu from the Amazon forests of Brazil.
Phytessence Wakame, a sea kelp from Japan.
Extend TK from New Zealand.In closing, it is my hope that you will take this skin care tip to heart. If you do, it will completely transform the way you think and feel about your beauty. The simple truth is that tougher, thicker skin is the foundation of beautiful, healthy skin.

Shoe Repairs And Several Other Things When I Was 7

Shoe Repairs And Several Other Things When I Was 7
My Dad repaired most of our shoes believe it or not, I can hardly believe it myself now. With 7 pairs of shoes always needing repairs I think he was quite clever to learn how to “Keep us in shoe Leather” to coin a phrase!

He bought several different sizes of cast iron cobbler’s “lasts”. Last, the old English “Laest” meaning footprint. Lasts were holding devices shaped like a human foot. I have no idea where he would have bought the shoe leather. Only that it was a beautiful creamy, shiny colour and the smell was lovely.

But I do remember our shoes turned upside down on and fitted into these lasts, my Dad cutting the leather around the shape of the shoe, and then hammering nails, into the leather shape. Sometimes we’d feel one or 2 of those nails poking through the insides of our shoes, but our dad always fixed it.

Hiking and Swimming Galas
Dad was a very outdoorsy type, unlike my mother, who was probably too busy indoors. She also enjoyed the peace and quiet when he took us off for the day!

Anyway, he often took us hiking in the mountains where we’d have a picnic of sandwiches and flasks of tea. And more often than not we went by steam train.

We loved poking our heads out of the window until our eyes hurt like mad from a blast of soot blowing back from the engine. But sore, bloodshot eyes never dampened our enthusiasm.

Dad was an avid swimmer and water polo player, and he used to take us to swimming galas, as they were called back then. He often took part in these galas. And again we always travelled by steam train.

Rowing Over To Ireland’s Eye
That’s what we did back then, we had to go by rowboat, the only way to get to Ireland’s eye, which is 15 minutes from mainland Howth. From there we could see Malahide, Lambay Island and Howth Head of course. These days you can take a Round Trip Cruise on a small cruise ship!

But we thoroughly enjoyed rowing and once there we couldn’t wait to climb the rocks, and have a swim. We picnicked and watched the friendly seals doing their thing and showing off.

Not to mention all kinds of birdlife including the Puffin.The Martello Tower was also interesting but a bit dangerous to attempt entering. I’m getting lost in the past as I write, and have to drag myself back to the present.

Fun Outings with The camera Club
Dad was also a very keen amateur photographer, and was a member of a camera Club. There were many Sunday photography outings and along with us came other kids of the members of the club.

And we always had great fun while the adults busied themselves taking photos of everything and anything, it seemed to us. Dad was so serious about his photography that he set up a dark room where he developed and printed his photographs.

All black and white at the time. He and his camera club entered many of their favourites in exhibitions throughout Europe. I’m quite proud to say that many cups and medals were won by Dad. They have been shared amongst all his grandchildren which I find quite special.

He liked taking portraits of us kids too, mostly when we were in a state of untidiness, usually during play. Dad always preferred the natural look of messy hair and clothes in the photos of his children.